As the 2025 PGA Tour season concludes at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, the narrative is unmistakably centered on one name: Scottie Scheffler. With a commanding fifth victory of the season secured at last week's BMW Championship, Scheffler enters the Tour Championship as both the reigning champion and the face of this modern era of dominance. His season — and indeed the last two years — has evoked comparisons to the legends of golf, with 12 PGA Tour wins over 2024 and 2025, placing him in the rarefied company of Tiger Woods and Jack Nicklaus.
But this year, there’s a twist. Unlike past iterations of the FedExCup finale, where staggered starting scores offered top players a head start, the 2025 Tour Championship begins with all players on level ground. While the format still draws debate, it adds drama and levels the playing field — a proper test for those hoping to end the season atop the leaderboard.
Course Breakdown: East Lake’s Challenge Elevated
East Lake Golf Club is no stranger to high-stakes golf, but recent changes will push players even further this week. Most notably, the 14th hole has been converted from a Par 5 to a Par 4, adding a new layer of difficulty late in the round. Additionally, lengthened rough and settled greens (thanks to Andrew Green’s 2024 renovations) mean precision will be paramount.
Key course stats:
- Par: 70
- Length: 7,490 yards
- Average Green Size: 6,238 sq ft
- Notable Past Champions: Scottie Scheffler (2024), Viktor Hovland (2023), Rory McIlroy (2019, 2022), Patrick Cantlay (2021), Dustin Johnson (2020)
This week, the most critical metrics include:
- Driving accuracy
- Strokes gained on approach (particularly from 125–150 yards)
- Three-putt avoidance
- Performance on difficult Par-70s over 7,400 yards
- Recent form (weighted strokes gained)
Betting Preview: Who Can Challenge Scheffler?
🔥 Top Outright Picks
- Rory McIlroy (+850)
A three-time winner at East Lake, McIlroy remains Scheffler’s most credible threat. Despite early rust at the BMW Championship, McIlroy showed signs of peak form in the final round, including a jaw-dropping drive of a Par-4 green with a 3-wood. If he sharpens his wedge play, a fourth title is within reach. - Viktor Hovland (+2200)
Since a sluggish start at the FedEx St. Jude, Hovland has surged. With over nine strokes gained on approach in his last two events, and consistency on the greens, he’s a momentum-backed contender. He may have denied Michael Kim a spot at East Lake with a late birdie last week, but bettors might feel more gratitude than frustration.
🧠 "Without Scheffler" Market Picks
- Tommy Fleetwood (+800)
While still winless on the PGA Tour, Fleetwood has flirted with victory all season. He ranks second in recent form metrics and has gained over 10.3 strokes on approach and 15.1 strokes putting in his last three events. This bet allows you to back Fleetwood without worrying about a late-round collapse spoiling your ticket. - Russell Henley (+1200)
Henley combines elite driving accuracy (68%) with strong recent iron play. He’s been among the steadiest players throughout the playoffs and would be even more dangerous with a hotter putter. With six straight events gaining strokes on approach, he’s trending well.
DFS Breakdown: Top Plays by Salary Tier
💰 Premium Tier
- Scottie Scheffler ($13,900)
With five wins and unrelenting form, fading Scheffler is practically a losing proposition. Having his trusted caddie Tedd Scott back on the bag makes him even harder to bet against. He’s nearly worth a price bump to $15k — he’s that good.
🔥 Core Mid-Tier Plays
- Tommy Fleetwood ($9,900) and Russell Henley ($9,600)
Both are highlighted above. Strong approach numbers and recent consistency put them at the heart of any serious lineup. - Viktor Hovland ($9,400)
Momentum, elite ball striking, and improving putting make him one of the week’s most balanced options. - Sam Burns ($8,500)
Gained across all strokes categories at East Lake last year, including +4 on approach. With 12 strokes gained putting over his last two starts, Burns is a high-upside, lower-owned play. - J.J. Spaun ($8,100)
The reigning U.S. Open champ is making his Tour Championship debut. Over the past two weeks, Spaun has gained 12 strokes on approach, flashing elite form. A hot putter could make him this week's breakout. - Cameron Young ($7,900)
Closed the season on fire: Wyndham winner + two top-11 playoff finishes. Dominant off the tee and recently sharp with the putter, Young looks poised to erase his poor 2022 East Lake debut.
💎 Value Plays
- Sepp Straka ($7,600)
A value monster. He’s gained 8+ strokes on approach in three East Lake appearances. If he can improve his driving, he’s a sleeper to climb the leaderboard. - Maverick McNealy ($7,300)
Quietly gained across the board at the BMW en route to a third-place finish. He’s another Tour Championship debutant flying under the radar with peak form. - Harris English ($6,900)
Though struggling with approach play lately, English’s overall season merits more respect than this salary suggests. Still, temper expectations due to a shaky East Lake track record. - Akshay Bhatia ($6,700)
Bhatia’s nerves nearly cost him last week, but he survived and advanced. His skill set fits East Lake well, and he should feel more comfortable with less pressure now. An ideal GPP flyer. - Shane Lowry ($6,400)
Finished T9 here in 2024 and gained in every category except around the green. Despite end-of-season inconsistency, his course fit and salary savings are appealing for larger builds. - Sungjae Im ($6,200)
A hard fade this week, unfortunately. Im lost 10.7 strokes on approach last week — an alarming stat that can’t be ignored at a ball-striker’s course like East Lake.
Final Thoughts
The 2025 Tour Championship delivers on multiple fronts — a legacy-defining finish for Scheffler, elite contenders like McIlroy and Hovland with something to prove, and a course setup that punishes anything short of excellence. East Lake will demand total command of the game, and in this new format, there are no shortcuts to victory.
With plenty of betting angles and DFS value to exploit, the finale promises both excitement and opportunity. Whether it’s Scheffler closing the curtain with another statement win or someone else rising to the occasion, Atlanta is set for a dramatic final chapter.
